Forecast Pro for Windows and Forecast Pro for Windows XE, Version 3.0        Back to Reviews

By Barry Simon, PC Magazine

November 20, 1997

 

(11/20/97) -- Whether the problem is figuring out next quarter's sales or worrying about how much of some raw material to have on hand, forecasting is an important part of many business decisions. Forecasting software focuses on looking at historical data for trends and seasonal variations and using robust statistical methods for predicting future values.

Business Forecast Systems' Forecast Pro has long been a leader in this field with its strong underlying technology. With the new Windows 95 interface on the standard ($595) and Forecast Pro XE ($995) versions, ease of use has been added to the program's strength. Two other important new elements are an expert system for choosing the method of analysis and the use of ODBC to allow import of data from native databases (supplementing the standard Excel support).

Forecast Pro lets you import or enter seasonal data; graph it to see the trends; and automatically generate forecasts with indicated bands of possibilities, once you have chosen a statistical-significance level. The automatic procedure involves an expert system for analyzing your data to figure out the best statistical method.

The automatic procedures let those with no statistics training use the program, but for the more knowledgeable the program allows considerable customization, including a choice of method among simple moving averages, Croston's intermittent-demand model, exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins, and dynamic regression.

Forecast Pro XE adds several important tools for advanced users: It can adjust for one-time events such as the effect of a special sale; it can group data sets into categories, to analyze collections as well as individual data sets; and it adds a method, Census X-11, that lets you see trends with the seasonal effects removed. With the excellent tutorial and the well-laid-out toolbars and tabbed dialogs, you'll be up and running in no time.

The only pitfalls that we found concern interactions with other programs. The program's requirements as to imported data are fairly rigid, so you may need to massage your Excel data before import. It would be good if the user could have more control over the import process. Secondly, the program's reports use ASCII format with spaces to separate columnar data, so you'll have problems if you try to use proportional fonts. Ideally, the program would produce RTF or .DOC files with data in tables. At a minimum, using tabs to separate data should be an option.

These are minor complaints. Anyone needing to forecast trends--especially those without enough background to use the powerful but more involved tools in statistical powerhouses, such as SPSS--will want to place Forecast Pro high on the list of must-have software.

Forecast Pro for Windows and Forecast Pro for Windows XE, Version 3.0. List price: $595 for standard version, $995 for XE version. Requires: Microsoft Windows 95, Windows 3.1, or OS/2 2.x; 4MB RAM; 4MB disk space. Business Forecast Systems, Belmont, MA; 617-484-5050; www.forecastpro.com.