Outlook for Forecast Pro 3: Indispensable. Update makes
BFS forecasting tool a clearer crystal ball
By Peter Coffee, PC Week
October 20, 1997
Review:
By Peter Coffee, PC Week Labs
For any company whose future depends on numbers, Forecast Pro for Windows is arguably the only application one needs to justify buying a computer.
Crucial tasks such as forecasting sales, predicting supply requirements and identifying seasonal patterns are aided by Version 3.0, released this week. Forecast Pro's expert system engine for forecast method selection becomes even more useful with the new version's options for sophisticated data analysis and flexible presentation.
PC Week Labs tested the final beta code of Business Forecast Systems Inc.'s high-end XE package, priced at $995 and designed to handle larger and more complex tasks than the standard edition of Forecast Pro (priced at $595).
Going to more sources
Forecasting begins with data, and both new editions of Forecast Pro can draw data from more sources than before. Both spreadsheets (in several formats) and databases with ODBC (Open Database Connectivity) will be popular options.
Even so, there's ample room for improvement in data access. Spreadsheets, for example, must be arranged in particular formats to be parsed by Forecast Pro, and users cannot select an arbitrary named range when they open a spreadsheet file. Similar restrictions apply to database files.
We believe that an analytic tool such as Forecast Pro should take its data as it finds it and should filter input data and assign needed attributes at the time that values come into the product's environment. Most spreadsheets, including Excel, already use this approach.
Though finicky about data format, Forecast Pro 3.0 is surprisingly tolerant of small data sets that traditional techniques would not be able to use. It provides an expanded collection of data models with options for forecasting low or intermittent flows, as in situations where costly spare parts must be kept on hand to deal with rare but critical situations.
Forecast Pro 3.0 makes it much easier than did previous versions to generate a forecast report that presents the desired information about past data, future predictions, risks and other vital parameters. We found the software's new Output Design tool effective and easy to use.
Forecast Pro automates every possible aspect of analysis and prediction, but it doesn't attempt to understand real-world events such as a special sale promotion or a work stoppage due to a strike. For exceptional situations of this kind, human judgment still plays an important role, and the XE version formalizes this process with event adjustment models.
By creating event variables, we were able to introduce special factors (resembling common seasonal adjustments) to reflect our estimates of disruptions to normal patterns. Many proven forecasting methods, such as exponential smoothing, become far more capable with this enhancement.
Advanced users will want to explore the multilevel forecasting capabilities of the XE package, which lets planners work with hierarchically grouped sets of data, such as regional sales that add up to national figures.
The multilevel feature automatically propagates a forecaster's manual adjustments, ensuring consistency. We were able to use the product's scripting facilities to choose between bottom-up or top-down forecasts. The former option let us aggregate individual forecasts to predict a total; the latter option enabled us to use past behavior of the total to make reliable predictions for categories, even those with limited historical data.
Adjustments to forecasts, in terms of either units or percentages, could easily be made from a dialog box, but we would like to see better feedback on the changes that have been made by this means. As it is, we felt that we should probably be keeping some kind of transcript of our changes in a nearby word processor.
This function should be built-in and a user's notes on forecast adjustments should be tied to the point where the changes were made.
Forecast Pro's flexibility should be combined with facilities for documenting any liberties that are taken with its results.
Graphical exploration of past and predicted data streams will be easier with the new visual tools and analytic capabilities in Forecast Pro 3.0 from Business Forecast Systems.
PC Week Labs Executive Summary: Forecast Pro for Windows XE 3.0 Beta
Those who need to predict future streams of values from historical data will benefit from Business Forecast Systems' incorporation of more advanced data models and usability aids in this major update of its Forecast Pro forecasting software. The high-end XE package handles large collections of data and can forecast categories and totals.
+ Expanded options for data access; graphical aids for designing output; options for modeling abnormal events.
- Many restrictions on input data format; insufficient tools for recording forecast adjustments.
Business Forecast Systems Inc., Belmont, Mass. (617) 484-5050